Financial Projections

EMPIRE STATE PICTURES's  projections assume a moderate amount of success for the film.  Keep in mind, there are a lot of factors that go into the success of a film, including general commercial appeal, casting of actors, the timing of the film in the marketplace, what kind of deal is made with the film's distributors, etc. 

In the projections below, we've used films generally comparable to ours, including with similar budgets.

While there exists the possibility that the film could become a major hit with critics and at the box office, which would greatly enhance the anticipated profit levels, the possibility also exists that the film could not perform up to these projections, and indeed, far lower. But if the film does perform greater than expected, expenditures by the distributor to market the film will increase as well, including the costs of creating more prints, running more ads, etc., even though those increases will be well worth the extra revenues.

Good Scenario

  1. The film plays at several major international film festivals.

  2. The film receives critical acclaim and awards.

  3. The film is purchased outright at one of these festivals for a multi-million dollar flat buy-out price, enabling us to instantly repay our investors plus their profit percentages.

  4. Or, if no such multi-million dollar purchase happens, the film is acquired for all rights by distributor who knows how to market independent films, and that distributor sells the film for the following: 

  5. US theatrical distribution generates $2,000,000 to $4,000,000 in net box office.  (After exhibitor has taken his 50%.)

  6. Domestic Ancillary (Video / DVD / Cable / Streaming / TV) sales generate $4,000,000 to $8,000,000.

  7. Foreign Theatrical sales generate $435,000 to $870,000.

  8. Foreign Ancillary sales generate $435,000 to $870,000.

  9. Gross Revenue totals $6,870,000 to $13,740,000.

  10. Distributor takes 35% of everything up to this point. Of remaining income, investors get paid off.  Then (YOUR PRODUCTION COMPANY NAME) and Investors split money 50/50.

Total back to investors, after all expenses: $732,750 to $1,465,500.

Fair Scenario

  1. The film receives limited exposure in lesser film festivals and builds more slowly.

  2. The film is acquired for all rights by distributor who knows how to market independent films, OR offered video-only distribution by a smaller distributor, or we decide to self-distribute the film.

  3. The distributor sells the film for the following: 

  4. US theatrical distribution generates $1,250,000 to $2,500,000 in net box office.  (After exhibitor has taken his 50%.)

  5. Domestic Ancillary (Video / DVD / Cable / Streaming / TV) sales generate $1,000,000 to $2,000,000.

  6. Foreign Theatrical sales generate $150,000 to $300,000.

  7. Foreign Ancillary sales generate $150,000 to $300,000.

  8. Gross Revenue totals $2,550,000 to $5,100,000.

  9. Distributor takes 35% of everything up to this point. Of remaining income, investors get paid off.  Then EMPIRE STATE PICTURES and Investors split money 50/50.

Total back to investors, after all expenses: $78,750 to $157,500.

Poor Scenario

  1. The film gains exposure in lesser film festivals.

  2. The film is offered distribution through a smaller distributor, who is only able to place the film) in a very limited theatrical run, but is able to help secure solid domestic ancillary (DVD and Cable) deals.

  3. The film receives lukewarm critical reviews, or none at all.

  4. The distributor sells the film(s) for the following: 

  5. US limited theatrical distribution generates $650,000 to $1,300,000 in net box office.  (After exhibitor has taken his 50%.)

  6. Domestic Ancillary (Video / DVD / Cable / Streaming / TV) sales generate $350,000 to $700,000.

  7. Foreign Theatrical sales generate $75,000 to $150,000. 

  8. Foreign Ancillary sales generate $75,000 to $150,000. 

  9. Gross Revenue totals $775,000 to $1,550,000.

  10. Distributor takes 35% of everything up to this point. 

No profit is made for investors.

Worst-Case Scenario

  1. The films gets zero exposure via film festivals or press.

  2. No distribution deals come in.

  3. The company self-distributes the film on the internet, using a third-party service to bring the film to popular VOD and streaming venues online.  Meanwhile, we put together an aggressive college tour of the film, visiting colleges regionally or nationwide, and selling DVDs/Blu-Ray and other merchandise at screenings.